The good news is that we just have one more phase to go before the long drawn electoral exercise in India gets over and the bad news is we still have to wait for another week before getting to know who forms the government at the Centre.
Come May 19, curtains will finally be drawn on the massive seven-phase polls spread over five weeks in the world’s largest democracy.
Between May 19, the last date of elections, and May 23, when results will be declared, you will come across dozens of post-poll surveys. But the one you should be tuned in to is yours truly – the India Today-Axis My India post-poll survey.
Of all the elections that took place between 2013 and 2019, India Today-Axis My India post-poll surveys have given the correct predictions in 95 per cent cases. Since 2013, Axis My India has conducted 36 post-poll surveys out of which 34 have predicted the correct leading party/alliance.
34 out of 36 predictions correct
This time, India Today-Axis My India is coming with an even bigger bang.
The post-poll survey, that will air on the evening of May 19 on India Today TV and Aaj Tak, will include surveys conducted on around 8 lakh voters in 542 constituencies.
This makes it India’s biggest post-poll survey.
Getting such accurate figures requires a strong team of dedicated volunteers and rigorous quality control mechanisms and India Today-Axis My India post-poll surveys have all of it.
Over seven lakh voters have already been surveyed in 35 days (as on Wednesday), with more to come till May 19.
7 lakh plus voters surveyed in 542 constituencies
Pradeep Gupta, director, Axis My India, explains how they managed to conduct such accurate studies over a period of time.
“The key to the success rate lies in the fact that we take the best representative samples from each constituency. A strong ground presence of 500-plus well-trained volunteers selected after a tough recruitment drive, live tracking of volunteers via mobile data management and random sample testing on a daily basis are undertaken to make the poll study more credible and reliable,” Gupta told India Today.
After the quality of data is given a green flag, more number-crunching takes place at the higher level for analysts, which include Pradeep Gupta himself decoding the emerging trends.
A SERIES OF SUCCESSFUL PREDICTIONS
India Today collaborated with Axis My India post the Bihar elections in 2015. However, even before that, Axis My India had an impressive prediction rate.
In 2013, Axis My India had conducted four post-poll surveys for four assembly elections and all the predictions were right.
Axis My India predicted that the BJP will form the government in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – and this turned out to be true.
It had also predicted that Delhi will throw up a hung assembly, which turned out to be true as well.
In fact, for then new entrant Aam Aadmi Party, the polling agency had predicted 27 seats. It won 28, making the prediction even for a party with no electoral history closest to reality.
95 per cent accuracy record
Axis My India predicted that the NDA will form the government with absolute majority and it did happen.
Apart from getting the Lok Sabha poll predictions correct, it could also successfully gauge the mood of voters in the four assembly elections that year. Axis My India predicted majority figures for BJP in Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Haryana, and for PDP in Jammu and Kashmir, which turned out to be correct.
In 2015, Axis My India conducted two post poll surveys – in Delhi and Bihar. It predicted that AAP will get absolute majority in Delhi; it happened. It also predicted that JD(U) will form the government in Bihar, which also turned out to be true.
India Today-Axis My India conducted five post-poll surveys for assembly elections in four states and one Union territory. Four hit the bull’s eye. We predicted BJP leading in Assam, LDF in Kerala, Congress-DMK alliance in Puducherry and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. All these predictions were correct.
India Today-Axis My India conducted post-poll surveys for assembly elections in five states; all of them were correct. It predicted BJP as the leading party in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand; it clean swept the two states.
We predicted Congress as the leading party in Punjab and Manipur, which also turned out to be right.
But though the Congress was the leading party in Manipur, it, however, was short of majority, which was also a possibility in our range of prediction. It was the BJP that formed the government in the state through post-poll alliances.
The post-poll survey of Goa predicted a hung assembly and this also turned out to be right. Like in Manipur, here too, the BJP formed the government via post-poll alliances.
Apart from the above states, the prediction on leading parties in the municipal elections of Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Thane and Nagpur were also correct.
Of the post poll surveys conducted in five states, India Today-Axis My India got the predictions correct for four.
It predicted a majority BJP government in Tripura, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, which happened. It also predicted a hung assembly in Meghalaya with Congress as the leading party, which also became true. However, the BJP with just two seats, allied with regional parties NPF and UDP to form the government.
All post poll surveys for five assembly elections in 2019 turned out to be right. While the Congress and its allies formed the governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, MNF won in Mizoram and TRS in Telangana, all of which were predicted by India Today-Axis My India.
Out of all the 36 post poll surveys it conducted, only two missed the target – the assembly polls of Tamil Nadu in 2016 and Karnataka in 2018.